A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."